Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
55 New Mexico St. 61.0%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 5 14 - 2 +9.6      +5.8 40 +3.9 73 65.8 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Grand Canyon 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 10 - 6 +1.5      +1.0 137 +0.5 147 69.6 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
168 Seattle 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 -0.3      -1.2 216 +0.9 132 68.6 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Cal St. Bakersfield 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -2.3      -2.2 246 0.0 163 64.3 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 California Baptist 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 7 - 9 -3.7      +0.4 162 -4.1 289 69.9 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
230 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 9 -3.9      -3.5 273 -0.4 174 74.2 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 UMKC 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 9 -4.0      -2.1 243 -1.9 222 66.9 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Utah Valley 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 9 -4.2      -2.4 251 -1.7 216 70.3 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 Chicago St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 24 2 - 14 -17.2      -7.9 341 -9.2 353 74.7 56 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 1.4 73.9 15.6 5.9 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 3.3 15.5 27.0 19.2 13.9 9.5 7.3 4.9 2.4 0.3
Seattle 3.9 9.5 20.3 18.2 15.8 12.8 10.2 7.6 5.0 0.6
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.6 4.9 13.4 15.3 15.5 15.0 13.5 11.8 9.0 1.6
California Baptist 5.2 3.1 9.0 12.4 14.5 14.8 15.7 14.9 13.2 2.3
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.2 2.9 8.7 12.1 14.1 14.9 15.4 15.5 14.0 2.5
UMKC 5.3 2.9 9.0 11.6 13.4 14.6 15.9 15.7 14.2 2.6
Utah Valley 5.3 3.1 8.7 11.6 13.3 14.9 15.4 15.6 14.7 2.7
Chicago St. 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.6 14.9 77.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.7 6.8 10.6 15.7 20.6 22.2 16.1
Grand Canyon 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.2 9.8 12.1 14.0 13.8 12.5 10.5 6.3 3.0 0.7
Seattle 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 4.9 7.6 10.1 12.1 13.4 13.4 11.7 10.0 6.6 3.6 1.4 0.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.5 8.1 10.6 12.3 13.6 12.8 11.4 9.1 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1
California Baptist 7 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.6 8.0 10.1 13.0 13.2 13.5 11.8 9.0 6.3 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 7 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.9 8.0 10.9 12.5 13.8 13.0 11.6 9.0 6.2 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
UMKC 7 - 9 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.0 8.2 10.8 13.3 13.7 12.8 10.8 8.8 6.1 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
Utah Valley 7 - 9 0.1 0.9 2.6 5.2 8.5 11.2 12.6 13.5 12.8 10.9 8.3 6.5 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Chicago St. 2 - 14 27.0 27.4 19.8 12.3 6.9 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 73.9% 62.7 9.7 1.3 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 15.5% 9.3 5.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Seattle 9.5% 5.3 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.9% 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 3.1% 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.9% 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
UMKC 2.9% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah Valley 3.1% 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 61.0% 58.1% 2.8% 12   0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 2.0 3.1 8.0 16.9 12.2 6.3 2.1 0.5 39.0 6.8%
Grand Canyon 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 3.8 3.3 2.2 1.0 85.7 0.4%
Seattle 8.8% 8.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.1 91.2 0.2%
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.8 94.6 0.1%
California Baptist 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 96.2 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 96.5 0.0%
UMKC 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 96.7 0.0%
Utah Valley 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 96.6 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 61.0% 1.6% 60.2% 22.6% 8.8% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Grand Canyon 14.3% 0.6% 14.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 8.8% 0.6% 8.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.4% 0.5% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 3.8% 0.5% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.5% 0.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.3% 0.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 3.4% 0.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 95.8 2.6 0.0
2nd Round 26.7% 0.3 73.3 26.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.9 0.0
Elite Eight 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Final Four 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1